Democratic political practitioners know the power of the Big Lie. We’ve seen hard evidence in the results of every GOP primary this midterm cycle. Our survey of Georgia Republicans released earlier this week reminds us of the challenges that progressives face in November and begs the question: Why do so many voters embrace this Electoral Fraud fantasy, given the mountain of evidence to the contrary.
53% of Republicans say they’re more loyal to the Republican Party than to former President Trump. Just 25% put Trump above the Party and 22% say they’re equally loyal to both. Younger Republicans were twice as likely as older Republicans to say they were more loyal to Trump than to the GOP (41% of those under age 45 vs 20% of those 45 and older).
In a hypothetical rematch, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 44%-38% — the six-point difference matching the 2020 outcome. These results are better for Biden than in all the swing state polling we did earlier in the year. Biden leads Trump 48%-31% among Hispanic voters, while Trump leads 52%-33% among white voters.
Texas voters overwhelmingly support tighter gun purchase statutes. Last week, we asked Texans about state gun purchase laws and recorded a 62% majority in favor of more restrictive gun purchase laws—putting the masses in this traditionally gun-loving state as slightly more pro-gun control than the nation as a whole.
The Republican Primary for Senate in Ohio is still anyone’s race with a week remaining, with no candidate above 20% and a third of voters still undecided. Our survey completed over the weekend shows State Senator Matt Dolan leading the pack with 18%, followed closely by J.D. Vance at 17%, Mike Gibbons at 13%, and Josh Mandel at 12%.
The President is currently down by double digits in Georgia, a state he won in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, and fuel prices seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in seven) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—a tell-tale sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.
With just eight months before the midterms, President Biden’s lead in a hypothetical rematch against Donald Trump is 5.2%, a four percent margin over the final 2020 tally. Still, almost one in nine voters are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third party candidate—a nagging reminder about the lack of satisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.
For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.
This is the second in our series about bright spots on an otherwise grey horizon. Our Director of Voter Targeting, Brannon Miller, has dug deep into Congressional redistricting thus far in 2022 and found that it has gone much better than we feared…
The conventional wisdom about this year’s midterms is that Democrats will lose about 20 seats in the House and the GOP takes control of the Senate. History confirms that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms. Moreover, President Biden’s approval rating is underwater, the generic ballot has Democrats down, and a host of vulnerable Democrats are retiring.
