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Georgia: Trump Leads Biden by Convincing Margin in Hypothetical Rematch

The President is currently down by double digits in Georgia, a state he won in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, and fuel prices seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in seven) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—a tell-tale sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

Pennsylvania: President Biden Leads Trump in Rematch in Keystone State; Bipartisan Support for Vote-by-Mail Has Vanished

With just eight months before the midterms, President Biden’s lead in a hypothetical rematch against Donald Trump is 5.2%, a four percent margin over the final 2020 tally. Still, almost one in nine voters are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third party candidate—a nagging reminder about the lack of satisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

Michigan: Storm Clouds from the Great Lakes State

For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.

Bedwetting or Whistling Past the Graveyard?

The conventional wisdom about this year’s midterms is that Democrats will lose about 20 seats in the House and the GOP takes control of the Senate. History confirms that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms. Moreover, President Biden’s approval rating is underwater, the generic ballot has Democrats down, and a host of vulnerable Democrats are retiring.

BPP-Pol-1

Maricopa County (Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs) accounts for roughly three-fifths of Arizona’s voters. After supporting Republicans in every election between 1952 and 2016, the county opted for Kyrsten Sinema for the US Senate seat in 2018 (in spite of a 6% win for the GOP governor) and in 2020 went for Mark Kelly for Senate and Joe Biden for President.

Where Do We Go  From Here?

When I was on the campaign trail in 2019, I stepped off the stump to a smattering of lackluster handclaps. A veteran candidate who had seen my speech approached to share some sage advice. “They don’t care how much policy research you did — they just don’t care that much,” he said. “Unless you find a way to talk about what makes them angry, they won’t.”

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