The Republican Primary for Senate in Ohio is still anyone’s race with a week remaining, with no candidate above 20% and a third of voters still undecided. Our survey completed over the weekend shows State Senator Matt Dolan leading the pack with 18%, followed closely by J.D. Vance at 17%, Mike Gibbons at 13%, and Josh Mandel at 12%.
The President is currently down by double digits in Georgia, a state he won in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, and fuel prices seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in seven) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—a tell-tale sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.
With just eight months before the midterms, President Biden’s lead in a hypothetical rematch against Donald Trump is 5.2%, a four percent margin over the final 2020 tally. Still, almost one in nine voters are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third party candidate—a nagging reminder about the lack of satisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.
For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.
This is the second in our series about bright spots on an otherwise grey horizon. Our Director of Voter Targeting, Brannon Miller, has dug deep into Congressional redistricting thus far in 2022 and found that it has gone much better than we feared…
The conventional wisdom about this year’s midterms is that Democrats will lose about 20 seats in the House and the GOP takes control of the Senate. History confirms that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms. Moreover, President Biden’s approval rating is underwater, the generic ballot has Democrats down, and a host of vulnerable Democrats are retiring.
If you began your holiday weekend early, you may have missed some very useful information released by the Pew Research Center on digital technologies in 2021. Here’s our quick take on their most interesting findings.
Maricopa County (Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs) accounts for roughly three-fifths of Arizona’s voters. After supporting Republicans in every election between 1952 and 2016, the county opted for Kyrsten Sinema for the US Senate seat in 2018 (in spite of a 6% win for the GOP governor) and in 2020 went for Mark Kelly for Senate and Joe Biden for President.
We’ve read dozens of insightful year-in-reviews of the American political landscape and offer this summary: the American electorate is universally grumpy.
When I was on the campaign trail in 2019, I stepped off the stump to a smattering of lackluster handclaps. A veteran candidate who had seen my speech approached to share some sage advice. “They don’t care how much policy research you did — they just don’t care that much,” he said. “Unless you find a way to talk about what makes them angry, they won’t.”
