chismstrat, Author at Chism Strategies

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Democratic political practitioners know the power of the Big Lie. We’ve seen hard evidence in the results of every GOP primary this midterm cycle. Our survey of Georgia Republicans released earlier this week reminds us of the challenges that progressives face in November and begs the question: Why do so many voters embrace this Electoral Fraud fantasy, given the mountain of evidence to the contrary.

Abbott Outperforms Trump in Hypothetical 2024 Matchups

In a hypothetical rematch, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 44%-38% — the six-point difference matching the 2020 outcome. These results are better for Biden than in all the swing state polling we did earlier in the year. Biden leads Trump 48%-31% among Hispanic voters, while Trump leads 52%-33% among white voters.

Uvalde Tragedy Moves Texas Opinion in Gun Safety Debate

Texas voters overwhelmingly support tighter gun purchase statutes. Last week, we asked Texans about state gun purchase laws and recorded a 62% majority in favor of more restrictive gun purchase laws—putting the masses in this traditionally gun-loving state as slightly more pro-gun control than the nation as a whole.

Georgia: Trump Leads Biden by Convincing Margin in Hypothetical Rematch

The President is currently down by double digits in Georgia, a state he won in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, and fuel prices seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in seven) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—a tell-tale sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

Pennsylvania: President Biden Leads Trump in Rematch in Keystone State; Bipartisan Support for Vote-by-Mail Has Vanished

With just eight months before the midterms, President Biden’s lead in a hypothetical rematch against Donald Trump is 5.2%, a four percent margin over the final 2020 tally. Still, almost one in nine voters are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third party candidate—a nagging reminder about the lack of satisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

Michigan: Storm Clouds from the Great Lakes State

For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.

Bedwetting or Whistling Past the Graveyard?

The conventional wisdom about this year’s midterms is that Democrats will lose about 20 seats in the House and the GOP takes control of the Senate. History confirms that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms. Moreover, President Biden’s approval rating is underwater, the generic ballot has Democrats down, and a host of vulnerable Democrats are retiring.

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