Pennsylvania: President Biden Leads Trump in Rematch in Keystone State; Bipartisan Support for Vote-by-Mail Has Vanished

February 22, 2022

Biden Up Over Trump in Presidential Rematch

With just eight months before the midterms, President Biden’s lead in a hypothetical rematch against Donald Trump is 5.2%, a four percent margin over the final 2020 tally. Still, almost one in nine voters are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third party candidate—a nagging reminder about the lack of satisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

  • Biden leads by 6% with those who say they are definitely voting and is tied among and those who are probably voting, with undecideds and third party choices comprising nearly a third of “probable voters.”
  • Biden leads by 18.1% among voters with a college degree but trails by 3.3%  with non-college voters.
  • Trump holds a 3.5 % lead among non-Hispanic White voters and more than one in seven of these voters reject both party nominees at this point.
  • Biden support among African Americans is 81.5%.
  • Hispanics are soft with 26% committed to “third party” at the moment.

Majority Support (51.4%) for Continuing With Vote-by-Mail

The 2019 bipartisan support for vote-by-mail (VBM) has vanished as the GOP message machine works overtime and the news of court challenges to vote-by-mail feed the Big Lie narrative.

  • Only 8% of Democrats opposed VBM compared to 80% of Republicans.
  • 78.5% of Biden supporters favor VBM compared to only 5.6% of Trump loyalists.
  • Voters under 35 are the most likely to favor the convenience of VBM.
  • 60.6% of voters with a college degree support VBM, compared to 45.3% of non-college voters.
  • Non-Hispanic whites support VBM by a 5% margin.

You can find toplines and crosstabs about the survey here.

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