For the past few weeks, the internet has been awash in conspiracy theories surrounding Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, with some on the far-right claiming the NFL is collaborating with the Biden campaign to set up a Swift-Kelce endorsement of the President at this year’s Super Bowl. Ignoring the outlandish nature of the conspiracy, we wanted to know: would such an endorsement actually matter?
We surveyed over 500 voters in Pennsylvania—an important swing state, and the home state of both Joe Biden and Taylor Swift—and what we found is that 1) Biden needs whatever help he can get and 2) a Swift-Kelce endorsement is not likely to make much difference.
Biden’s in trouble
Our poll found President Biden to be deeply unpopular with voters in the Keystone State. Fully 60% of voters we spoke with have a negative opinion of the President, while just 32% hold a favorable opinion of him. Biden is deeply unpopular with voters age 18-34 (20% favorable-66% unfavorable). Biden trails Trump 40%-32% with 11% of voters backing someone else and the remainder undecided. 30% of Biden 2020 voters say they are either voting for someone else or unsure if they will back the President, while Trump holds on to 84% of his 2020 voters.
Swift Endorsement
We asked voters how an endorsement from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, and Jason Kelce (the now-retired Eagles legend and brother of Travis) would each impact their support for President Biden. The results: not much change. 11% of undecided voters say an endorsement from Swift would make them more likely to support Biden, while 13% say it would make them less likely to support the President (haters are, after all, gonna hate). The numbers are slightly better for Travis Kelce: 13% more likely, 8% less likely.
In part, a Swift endorsement isn’t likely to matter much because her fans already support Biden—among those who say they are unequivocally a fan of Swift’s music, Biden leads Trump 59%-23%.
Shapiro, Jason Kelce get high marks
We also tested the favorability of other Pennsylvania pols. Governor Josh Shapiro gets high marks from voters, with a net +16 favorability. Voters are more divided on other politicians, including Bob Casey (+1); his likely opponent, David McCormick (+1); and John Fetterman (-4).
The most popular figure we asked about was Jason Kelce. The Eagles legend has a net +40 favorability (48% favorable-8% unfavorable). That popularity doesn’t necessarily translate into political influence, though—while 14% of undecided voters say an endorsement from Jason Kelce would make them more likely to vote for Joe Biden (higher than the number for either Swift or his brother Travis), 16% say his endorsement would make them less likely to consider Biden (also higher than the other two).
You can see full weighted crosstabs and toplines here.
This survey of 538 voters February 6-8, 2024, was conducted via text messages to cell phones and has a margin of error of +/- 4.22%. The survey was weighted by age, ethnicity, gender, and education. Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group.
For more information, call Brannon Miller at 601.402.3281 or email brannon@chismstrategies.com.
