Our survey
Our survey shows Gina Ortiz Jones leading Rolando Pablos in the race for mayor 50%-41%. However, there are clear signs in the data that Ortiz Jones’ position could be weaker than that:
- Among voters who have already cast a ballot, Ortiz Jones only leads Pablos 49%-47%–a statistical tie, well within the margin of error.
- There is a clear partisan divide: Those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 support Ortiz Jones 84%-8%, while Trump voters back Pablos 93%-4%. Early voters were significantly more Republican in the runoff than they were in the general election. According to modeling from L2, 53% of early voters in the runoff are likely Democrats, 45% likely Republicans, and 2% likely independents; early voters in the general election were 58% Democratic, 39% Republican, 3% independent.
- We are assuming that election day voters will be significantly more Democratic than early voters because the pool of likely voters (those who cast a ballot in May or who have previously voted in a municipal election) who have not voted yet is overwhelmingly Democratic (59% D-36% R). Voters who cast a ballot in the May general election but have not voted yet prefer Ortiz Jones to Pablos by a huge margin: 58%-23%.
- However, in the general election (and in most recent elections), Election Day turnout is slightly more Republican than the early vote.
- The Ortiz Jones campaign may be able to reverse recent trends and turn out Democratic voters in strong numbers on Election Day, in which case she is clearly favored to win. Otherwise, this election will be a coin toss.
What happened in May
The story of the general election—which can be seen in both our prior polling and in the geography of the results—can be summarized as “Gina Ortiz-Jones versus the regional candidates.”
Ortiz-Jones led the other candidates in every city council district save District 9, where Rolando Pablos led with 26% to her 20%.
The five current and former city councilmembers on the ballot all managed respectable performances in their individual districts, but with few exceptions, got no traction elsewhere in the city. Adriana Rocha Garcia got the highest share of any of the councilmembers on their home turf, winning 24% of the vote in her district. She specifically overperformed in the northern portion of her district, besting all other candidates (including Ortiz-Jones) in the precincts inside Loop 410 with 29% of the vote.
Melissa Cabello Havrda and Manny Pelaez each received 20% of the vote in their districts. Cabello Havrda additionally managed to make it into double-digits in District 2, suggesting that Councilman Jalen McKee-Rodriguez’s endorsement there did manage to boost her support by 6-7 points.
John Courage managed to get 17% of the vote in District 9, even as Rolando Pablos took the bulk of the Republican vote citywide. Finally, former District 10 Councilman Clayton Perry got 14% in his former district.
While not on the city council, support for Rolando Pablos and Beto Altamirano was also somewhat circumscribed by geography. Altamirano managed an impressive 17% of the vote in precincts located in the central part of the city (within Loop 410), while he was held to single digits in precincts outside 410.
The opposite held for Pablos, who received just 11% of the vote in precincts within the Inner Loop. He made the runoff thanks to a good showing in districts 8, 9, and 10 (combined, he received 22% to Ortiz-Jones’ 23% in these districts), and he won strong pluralities (35%+) in several precincts in the Stone Oak area; at the same time, he managed to win just 12% of the vote in the remainder of the city.
Conclusion
As we hear every election, “it all comes down to turnout,” and Pablos’ campaign seems to have done a better job of turning out its partisans.
First, 74% of likely Republicans who voted in May have already returned to the polls for the runoff, compared to 64% of likely Democrats.
Second, of the roughly 34,000 voters who did not cast a ballot in the general election but who have turned out for the runoff, a slim plurality (49%-47%) are modeled as likely Republicans, despite the fact that the likely voting population leans Democratic 57%-40%.
But this race still favors Gina Ortiz Jones. San Antonio is still a solidly Democratic city, a majority of the voters who have cast a ballot so far are likely Democrats, and Ortiz Jones has done an excellent job of consolidating Democratic voters. Undecided voters supported Kamala Harris by a 44-point margin in 2024, so on paper, the remaining undecideds look much more like Gina Ortiz Jones voters than Rolando Pablos voters. While we are sure she would have preferred a cakewalk, a win is a win, and the odds still favor her to carry the day and keep the mayor’s office in progressive hands.
You can find crosstabs and weighted toplines here.
For questions about this survey, you can email Brannon Miller at brannon@chismstrategies.com.
This survey was conducted June 3-4. It has a sample size of 901, with a margin of error of +/-3.27%. Results were collected via SMS and weighted by age, race, gender, and education to match the likely electorate.
