Dobbs Decision Tilts NC Senate Race Toward Beasley

August 9, 2022by Amy LeMenager
  • Democrat Cheri Beasley leads Republican Ted Budd 46% to 42% with 12% undecided in the open US Senate seat in NC. This survey comes six weeks after the Dobbs decision that struck down abortion rights secured under Roe v. Wade. 49% of NC votes oppose the recent Dobbs decision (41% support), benefitting Beasley in the polls. The gender gap is large in this race, with Beasley leading among women 52% to 36%, and Budd leading among men 50% to 39%.
  • Lots of voters have not come home yet. Beasley is currently polling only 75% among African Americans voters, with 17% undecided (by contrast, only 9% of white voters are undecided). For Budd, Trump voters are more likely to be undecided in the Senate race (2.5% of Biden voters to 8.8% of Trump voters). Each campaign will be working over the next ninety days to solidify its base.
  • Beasley leads among Independents. About 22% of voters consider themselves Independent, with Beasley leading among them 42% to 30%. She leads by 20% with college-educated voters.

Biden Trails Trump in a Hypothetical Rematch

  • Trump currently leads Biden by 6% (45% to 39%) with almost 6% expressing support for a third-party candidate and 11% undecided. In 2020, Trump won NC by a razor-thin .3%. The US Senate race crosstabs suggest that those in the ‘third party” category are more Republican than Democrat (Budd leads 44% to 33%) and that undecideds in the Presidential rematch contain lots of unenthusiastic Democrats (Beasley leads 43% to 9%).
  • Biden’s base has eroded. He leads among women by only 7% but trails among men by more than 20%. Women are twice as likely to be undecided (14%). 15% of white voters are undecided about how they would vote in a presidential rematch. Fortunately, independents are evenly split but Biden has lost significant ground with younger voters—his lead over Trump is only 1%.

Drilling Down on the Dobbs Decision

  • Anti-abortion hard liners are a minority. Only 18% of North Carolina voters and 14% of North Carolina women voters believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Even among senior citizens, only 21% say abortion should be illegal at all times (37% of seniors say abortion should be legal under any circumstances). Only one-third of voters support the Dobbs decision and 35% of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.
  • Abortion rights supporters are more strident in their position: 72% of those who disagree with the Dobbs decision say abortion should be legal in all circumstances. A slight majority of women say abortion should be legal without restriction.
  • Opposition to the Dobbs decision is remarkably consistent across age groups. Opposition ranges from 47% to 51% (youngest voter group).                                     
  • For undecided voters in the US Senate race, twice as many favor unrestricted abortion access as support a universal abortion ban (38% to 19%). This lean helps Beasley.
  • Among voters who believe the state has the right to some restrictions on abortion, Budd leads Beasley 62% to 26%.

You can find full-weighted crosstabs and toplines here.

About Blueprint

Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections. This survey of 656 voters August 4-6, 2022, included landline and mobile phone responses and has a margin of error of +/- 3.83%. Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group. For more information call Brad Chism at 601.918.4563.


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