Tracking IVR Survey Shows Trump Had a Good Month with Swing State Republicans…But Was it Good Enough?


Today we report on the fourth track in our survey of Swing State Republican voters. We asked about their plans to support Donald Trump and then followed up with a recent statement by Trump to see how that might impact their support. And for Trump voters less likely to support him after hearing his statements, we asked them to explain why and recorded their responses. 

  • In less than a month we have seen a 13% increase of GOP voters in swing state Republicans solidly committed to Donald Trump.                                                   
  • Trump hasn’t closed the deal with 21% of these swing state Republicans who remain undecided or planning to vote for another candidate.
  • Over the last month, Trump’s inflammatory statements haven’t impacted his base support but have continued to  raise serious doubts with more than half the “Lean Trump” Republicans in these swing states.
Here are the tracks over the last month.

We will continue these IVR tracks to measure the reaction of Battleground State Republican voters to Donald Trump’s statements in the coming weeks. If you’d like cross tabulations by region click here. If you’d like a sampling of the recordings of Trump voters expressing their disgust with his statements, just click here.
A Few Notes About The Sample
We surveyed likely Republican general election voters in ten battleground states (CO, IA, FL, MI, OH, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI). Our sample is limited to households with land line phones. The sample is weighted to reflect the relative electoral vote of each state of those states within the survey. States are grouped  by region: Upper South (NC and VA) at 20%; Midwest (IA, MI, OH, PA, WI) at 49%; Mountain West at 11% (CO, NV) and Florida as a standalone (20%).


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