Last night we launched the fifth round of tracking swing state Republicans’ support for Trump. We wanted to know how Trump’s encouragement of Russian cyber espionage played with GOP voters. Our survey polled for support and then asked them how Trump’s statement impacted their initial plans. We also gave Trump supporters upset by his recent statements the opportunity to explain why. Here are highlights.
- Solid support for Trump among swing state Republicans has grown by 10% over a month.
- One in six GOP voters in targets states have not come home.
- Trump’s core supporters are unmoved by his outlandish statements.
- “Lean Trump” voters are less predictable and react more strongly to some statements than others, but the cumulative impact of these Trump statements in minimal.
We will continue these IVR tracks to measure the reaction of Battleground State Republican voters to Donald Trump’s statements in the coming weeks. If you’d like cross tabulations by region click here. If you’d like a sampling of the recordings of Trump voters expressing their disgust with his statements, just click here.
A Few Notes About The Sample
We surveyed likely Republican general election voters in ten battleground states (CO, IA, FL, MI, OH, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI). Our sample is limited to households with landline phones. The sample is weighted to reflect the relative electoral vote of each state of those states within the survey. States are grouped by region: Upper South (NC and VA) at 20%; Midwest (IA, MI, OH, PA, WI) at 49%; Mountain West at 11% (CO, NV) and Florida as a standalone (20%).