New Hampshire’s Role in the 2020 Democratic Primary
Brad Chism’s time at the annual AAPOR Conference included an interesting presentation about New Hampshire and potential models for the 2020 cycle. Here were four possible scenarios discussed.
The Front-runner Stumbles (1984)
- Gary Hart won major groups, split registered Dems, and lost seniors to Mondale.
The Front-runner Recovers (2008)
- After losing Iowa, Hillary Clinton narrowly edged Senator Obama among liberals, moderates and rested her win on registered Democrats, women and older voters.
Massachusetts vs. Vermont (2004)
- Sen. Kerry won the face-off with Gov. Dean, though the split was about even among liberals and voters under 30.
Crowded House, “We know that they won’t win...” (1976)
- Gov. Carter emerged victorious from a big field on the strength of moderates, independents and older voters.