Mapping the New Hampshire Senate Race

With New Hampshire as a swing state in the presidential race and the battleground for a key US Senate race, it is helpful to look at the political landscape there. Using our Geopolitics@ mapping tool, we can see that New Hampshire is divided between the heavily populated, urban counties of the southeast (which tend to be more conservative) and the more liberal counties of the north and west. While a Democrat doesn’t need to win Rockingham and Hillsborough counties (the two largest in the state), he/she must at least compete there in order to win statewide—anything less than 45% in these two counties, and the Republican has the advantage.

According to Real Clear Politics, the average of recent NH polls put incumbent GOP Senator Ayotte only 1.5% ahead of challenger Governor Maggie Hassan. With Hassan cutting into Ayotte’s fundraising lead—after raising $3.2 million in the second quarter—this race is expected to be extremely tight. Secretary Clinton fairs slightly better, polling 2.7 points higher than presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. Ayotte was one of a handful of Republican senators to skip Trump’s meeting with Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill yesterday, suggesting she may try to distance herself from her party’s presidential candidate this year. For those with a special interest in this race, just click here if you’d like to see different election results or drill down more by political subdivisions using our Geopolitics@ mapping tool. Or click here if you want more information on our Geopolitics@ tool or examples of studies in other states.

As always, we invite you to join the conversation on social media with #ChismStrat.


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