Advances in Exit Polling

Advances in Exit Polling

Brad Chism recently attended the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) annual conference and returned laden with charts, graphs and analysis from some very big brains in attendance. Here are some of the more interesting tidbits about exit polling.

  • Exit polls in 2018 performed much better than in 2016 because of weighting for education and improved systems for ensuring geographic representation in the reporting across a state.
  • The National Exit Poll (paid for by a consortium of media organizations) tweaked it’s “education attainment groupings” and got better results. Their new 5-point scale is No college/Some college no degree/Associates Degree/Bachelors Degree/Advanced Degree
  • Two test programs (NV and TN) with in-person interviews of early voters were accurate predictors of final election tallies. The method has a lower cost per completed interview than traditional tracking polls and is more effective where pre-Election Day voting is predominantly in person rather than by mail.

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