Today we continue with our visual presentations on swing state elections and key US Senate and House races using our GeoPolitIQs™ mapping tool. We developed GeoPolitIQs to aid in the quick analyses of historical voter turnout and key demographics that help define the current political landscape.
The images below are not strangely colored insects but rather maps in 2012 and 2014 of Colorado voter turnout. The county boundaries have been altered to reflect relative turnout and the red to blue shading reflects the dominance from GOP to Democrat in each county.
Using our GeopolitIQs mapping tool, we can see the path to victory for Senator Michael Bennet. 60% of Colorado’s voters in 2012 came from the six largest counties in the state, which President Obama won with 58% of the vote; in the remaining 58 counties, President Obama only garnered 41% of the vote, which was still enough to put him over the top statewide.
The 2014 map shows the impact of a depressed Democratic turnout—there’s too much “white” on the 2014 map (more counties with narrow vote margins) and the “red” counties are larger in proportion to the Presidential year.
In 2016, Senator Bennet will need to run the score up by at least as much as 2012 in the large counties of Denver, Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Boulder if he hopes to overcome the ruby red rural counties to the east and west.