Important Survey on Mississippi US Senate GOP Primary

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   Important Survey on US Senate GOP Primary

 

 Chism Strategies Survey in MS GOP Senate Primary:

Undecideds Disgusted With Both Campaigns In Race Too Close to Call

 

 

Last evening we conducted an IVR survey of likely GOP primary voters in Mississippi. The sample size was 813 completes for a MOE of +/- 3.4%. The weighted candidate support results are noted below. On the next page are highlights from the Undecided voter responses. Tabulations begin on the following pages. The survey instrument follows at the end.

 

 

Candidate

Support

Thomas Carey

1.4%

Thad Cochran

44.3%

Chris McDaniel

46.4%

Undecided

7.9%

Total

100.0%

 

 

Initial Observations
   •McDaniels numbers have recovered after the initial drop in the wake of the arrests of

campaign supporters.

   o Our earlier tracking surveys showed McDaniel leading Cochran within the margin of error before the scandal broke.

 

  • This race is too close to project a winner.
   o The differences in support numbers are within the margin of error.
   o Because of the significant differentials in candidate support by age group, the turnout mix

will impact the final tallies--the younger the mix, the better for McDaniel.

   o Because Mississippi doesn’t conduct closed primaries and the Democratic primary is not

heavily contested, projecting the ideological mix of the turnout is difficult--the more

Democrats who cross over, the better for Cochran.
   o 81% of the remaining Undecideds say that the “scandals” of both camps are equally bad.

 

 

Notes:

1. These surveys include only land line phones.
2. These surveys have a three part screen for GOP primary voter participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant to self identify partisanship and excluded all Democrats and lean-Democrats. We then screened for probability of voting in the GOP June primary.
3. The sample is 92% Caucasian. The initial survey tabulations over sample women and older voters. We adjusted for anticipated turnout of 52% women, votes under age 45 at 21% voters; age 45 to 54 at 20%; voters age 55 to 64 at 23% and voters ages 65+ at 36%. The weighted candidate support total at the top of this page reflects these percentages.
4. We caution against drawing sweeping
conclusions from the subsamples because of the smaller sizes of some of them.

 

 

This information was generated solely at the direction and expense of Chism Strategies without input from any candidate or campaign committee.

 

 

Brad Chism

601.918.4563

www.chismstrategies.com

 


                             
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